El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that occurs every three to five years when Pacific Ocean surface waters heat abnormally, is expected to become very strong in 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 90% chance of a very strong episode and a 69% probability it will break records since 1950. The phenomenon began in June 2026 and is intensifying, with its peak expected between November 2026 and January 2027.
Several popular travel destinations are already experiencing severe impacts. In Peru, torrential rains, floods, and landslides have cut off access to Machu Picchu, and the Inca Trail was closed in August 2026 after flash floods. The Great Barrier Reef in Australia has faced six major bleaching episodes since 2016, with 73% of monitored reefs affected in 2024. In Southeast Asia, forest fires have burned 800,000 hectares in Indonesia between January and August 2026, causing hazardous air quality in Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
Other affected regions include the Galapagos Islands, where warming waters threaten species like penguins and sea lions, and southern Africa, where the Zambezi River's reduced flow threatens Victoria Falls. The Amazon rainforest faces increased fire risk, with 2.79 million hectares burned in 2024. Hawaii experienced its second driest year on record in 2025, and El Niño is worsening drought and wildfire risks. Sri Lanka is facing water shortages and potential park closures, while East Africa is experiencing excessive rains that have damaged infrastructure in Tanzania.
For travellers, these conditions mean increased risks and disruptions at many popular destinations. Peru, Australia's Great Barrier Reef, Southeast Asian beaches, the Galapagos, Victoria Falls, the Amazon, Hawaii, Sri Lanka, and parts of East Africa and India may face travel advisories, closures, or hazardous conditions. Travellers should monitor updates from local authorities and consider flexible booking options.
